US vs the World: A great opportunity
I was interested in what steps Canada might take to counteract the US's (aka Trump World's) continued aggression towards its allies and suggested (after various discussions) to ChatGPT:
Canada is in a weird position. As being in North America, it is geographically linked to the US in a way that most other countries can't even comprehend (except for perhaps Russia and China who also have sprawling borders). So how does it deal with Trump and his tariffs? It used to be part of the UK Commonwealth and continues to have great partnerships with the rest of the world.
The biggest issue with Trump's attitude is that even if (best case) it goes away in four years, it has now sowed mistrust (or distrust) in the current US political climate, one that is hyper-partisan and apt to change every four years. While ideologically different, no modern administration has denied the need for global trade and partnerships. But can you trust the US to do this anymore? Americans may decry Trump's behaviour but the reality is they voted for him and he was elected legitimately. Any hope for the US system of checks and balance is out the window right now as the Republican senate and congress are afraid of being "primaried" (ie lose their jobs) if they stand against Trump and the Supreme Court has effectively shown itself to be willing to be pushed around. So without any animosity towards the American people, what can be done to reduce the international reliance on the US?
A possible shining light might actually be a AUKCAN (or AUKCANZ AUKCANIZ...or just OC - Old Commonwealth)) block that could also work with the EU, effectively bypassing the US as a means for world trade. Could this work?
The response from ChatGPT:
Yes, exactly! While the collapse of US-led global trade dominance is unlikely in the immediate future, the scenario you’ve outlined—a Commonwealth-based economic and security bloc (AUKCAN or OC - “Old Commonwealth”)—is a realistic hedge against US unpredictability and could serve as a viable alternative trade network.
1. Why an AUKCAN (or OC) Bloc Could Work
If the US isolates itself or weaponizes trade and intelligence-sharing, a new transatlantic-pacific trade frameworkcould emerge, centered around:
• 🇬🇧 UK (London as the European trade hub)
• 🇨🇦 Canada (North America’s trade alternative)
• 🇦🇺 Australia & 🇳🇿 New Zealand (Pacific entry points)
• + Potential Expansion: India, Japan, EU partnerships
This would allow world trade to bypass the US, mitigating the risks of:
1. US economic nationalism (unpredictable tariffs, trade disputes)
2. US security volatility (Trump threatening to weaken NATO, Five Eyes, etc.)
3. Overreliance on China (offering an alternative to China-dominated trade in Asia)
2. Key Benefits of an AUKCAN (OC) Bloc
✅ Trade Resilience Without US Dependency
• Nations currently dependent on the US for trade (EU, Japan, Mexico, etc.) would gain a new alternative.
• UK-Canada-Australia trade routes would strengthen Atlantic-Pacific connections.
✅ Defense & Intelligence Continuity
• If Trump undermines Five Eyes, an “OC Intelligence Network” could replace US leadership.
• Military agreements like AUKUS could expand to include Canada & Japan.
✅ EU Collaboration Without US Barriers
• France and Germany are already interested in reducing reliance on the US.
• AUKCAN could function as an EU-adjacent ally, not a competitor.
✅ Reduces Chinese & US Leverage on Global Trade
• India and Japan could align with OC for trade diversification.
• Latin American nations (Chile, Argentina, Brazil) could join for trade deals without relying on US or China.
3. Would This Actually Work?
Challenges:
• Canada & Australia’s deep economic ties to the US (they wouldn’t want to abandon the US fully).
• India’s historic reluctance to join Western-led economic blocs (it prefers to play both sides).
• China’s response (China would likely try to counteract this by pulling Australia & Canada closer via economic incentives).
Opportunities:
• If Trump weaponizes tariffs & intelligence-sharing, nations would have no choice but to create an alternative.
• The EU and Japan would support this as an alternative to US and China trade dominance.
• AUKCAN (or OC) wouldn’t need to be an anti-US alliance—just a parallel system that ensures global trade stability.
4. Final Take: AUKCAN (or OC) as the New “Middle Power” Trade Hub
Rather than relying on the US as the default trade center, an AUKCAN bloc would create a global trade buffer, ensuring that:
• If the US isolates itself, trade continues without disruptions.
• If China dominates Asian trade, smaller nations still have an alternative.
• If the EU weakens, an AUKCAN-EU partnership keeps trade routes alive.
This wouldn’t replace US leadership overnight, but it would create a second Western-led global trade structure—something long overdue in an era of growing economic unpredictability.
So yeah, Old Commonwealth (OC) as an economic & intelligence counterweight to US-China dominance might just be the logical Plan B for global trade.
Would love to see how this plays out in the coming years!
posted by Andrew MacNeill @ 5:42 AM
